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    Multiple economic indicators suggests the economy is getting worse. Like Wiley Coyote suspended in mid-air and not yet realizing he is about to plummet to the ground, the US economy is magically suspended by wishful thinking and unsustainable monetary policies.

    ^Current image of the US Economy (source: US Fed)

    A number of economic measures to give a sense of the situation.

    Unemployment claims at all time highs:

    Retail sales down dramatically.

    Factory output down to lowest levels since post-WW2.

    Restaurants in a mass shut down. OpenTable data for restaurants.

    Hospital systems are losing large amounts of money due to a lack of elective procedures.
    英雄联盟 Let′s Gank NGA玩家社区 NGA玩家社区:NGA玩家社区 致力打造最专业的LOL玩家论坛 拥有最新的资讯与攻略 最及时的LOL赛事资讯 英雄联盟(LOL)官方合作论坛 本版面为用户版面,由用户自行管理,论坛管理员认为讨论内容不适合的版面可能会 … or more in the last few weeks.

    Cities and municipalities are heading towards large budget deficits due to drop in tax receipts.

    China data does not lend much comfort to a fast recovery. Production is down 10% and consumer demand is down 30%, despite China "unlocking". China is still grinding back to baseline and has a long way to go. We should expect the same of the US economy.

    Economic shocks and cascades
    It usually takes 3 to 6 months for an economic shock to wend its way through the economy. Like dominos slowing falling over there is a cascade of hiring freezes, purchasing freezes and layoffs. The companies whose customers did purchasing freezes or cost cuts suddenly find their own revenue dropping, so they too need to decrease costs in headcount and/or purchasing.

    Right now big enterprises have been going through the following steps:
    1. Figure out this COVID thing. (1-2 weeks)
    2. Figure out how to get 10,000 people to work from home and become somewhat productive. (4 weeks)
    3. Figure out impact of economic slowdown to our business and customers (2-4 weeks)
    4. Decide how to cut costs and pull together layoff plan (4 weeks)
    5. Take action like layoffs, IT buying freeze etc. (4-8 weeks)

    In other words, it should take a large enterprise 3-6 months to move to remote work, understand its financial situation, plan a layoff and buying freeze, and execute it. Given that we are only a month or two into COVID, much of the damage is yet to come. This means many startups won't see the real impact of the slow down for anywhere between a few weeks and two quarters as big enterprises figure it all out and then act.

    As more people become unemployed (many economists estimate 20-30% unemployment) and consumer demand drops, more large enterprises will take the following actions:
    1. Slow or freeze purchasing
    2. Renegotiate prices or contracts & backend payments
    3. Freeze hiring or do layoffs
    4. Divest assets or divisions
    5. Some will also be aggressive and start doing more M&A or market consolidation

    As a startup you will need to make a series of offensive and defensive moves to deal with this new environment.

    If you are an early stage company that has raised 2-3 years of cash, you may be fine and can ignore a lot of the advice below. Your focus should be on building a team and product that will get to product/market fit in today's environment. The main suggestion would be to focus on a product that can sell in a year when your product is ready - the biggest risk for an early stage company is that sales cycles may take longer.

    For everyone else, read on :)

    Defensive Moves
    1. Check your cash burn. 
    Assess your situation:
    How much cash do you have?
    What is happening to your business?
    What is likely to happen given customer mix?

    You need to figure out how to get to 2 to 3 years of cash. 3 is optimal as it gives you:

    • 6-12 months for the economy to bottom
    • 6-12 months to adjust and start to grow again. You will need to show growth to fundraise at a good price.
    • 9-12 months of buffer when you go out to fundraise

    Getting to 2-3 years may include fundraising, pricing or payment changes with customers, or cutting your own costs via layoffs or other means.

    In planning burn you should assume also do a "stress test" model. For example, if you planned to grow 3X this year, what happens if you grow 2X? If you are flat with the year? If you are down 50%? Some businesses are actually accelerating out of COVID and this might not be relevant. If you are already seeing things slow you might want to see what a low probability, worst case plan means for cash management as the economic picture unfolds during the next 2 quarters.

    2. Raising money in a recession.
    There is an old saying in fundraising "when they are passing the hors d'oeuvres take two" - when money is available you should take it. Fundraising in a recession is different from fundraising in good times.

    • Optimize for an OK valuation and speed versus a great valuation and slow process. Valuations that look cheap in a given moment may look expensive 6 months later during volatile times. In good times you should optimize for valuation. In bad times, you should optimize for speed, simplicity, and buffer.
    • Take a bit of extra money. Make sure that in your very worst case you can have 3 years of cash or bridge to profitability. A little extra dilution in a recession is better than uncertainty on multiples or cash position in the future.
    • Remember that getting profitable gives you more options than not. The lower your burn, the higher your leverage all else being equal.
    • Expect more inside rounds. Many VCs are focusing first on their own portfolio in terms of funding, and then will look externally in a few months. Expect many of the rounds in the next few months to be driven by insiders. In some cases these will be reopenings of prior rounds.
    • Pricing uncertainty. VCs are struggling with how bad businesses will be impact due to the recession. Given that the next 3-6 months are highly uncertain VCs do not know what valuation to give. Will the business still grow its projected 300% this year or will it growth 50%? Enterprise sales deals from last year are closing in April, but will new sales deals initiated remotely last month close or stay open longer? Given the business uncertainty many VCs are having trouble giving offers, making fundraising harder.
    • 新手入门及其它(硬件) - 恩山无线论坛 - Powered by Discuz!:2021-6-15 · 给大家分享一个免费P戒资源的地方 风云激荡,驰骋江湖,爱快云3.0破关而出! 手把手教你如何选购软路由+一键安装软路由 群晖NAS(黑群晖_白群晖)摇身一变,也可以担起软路由的重任,安装LEDE软路由实现.... The stock markets are resilient. Lockups are coming off. The sun is out. Big promises are being made on vaccines and drugs (without data to support them yet). The economic carnage has not been highlighted by media much yet. The next 2 months may be a relatively good time to fundraise.

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    3. Understand which customers are at risk, and which should be embraced.
    If you sell to enterprises, go through your customer list. If you have revenue concentration, look at your top N accounts. Do you have travel, local governments, retail, real estate, or other customers? If so, which are high risk of cancelation or renegotiation? You can discount this revenue as you plan for burn.  You may need to fire bad customers, or stop extending credit.

    Which customers also seem to be accelerating or doing better in this time? You may want to spend more time with them or focus your sales efforts on upselling your most stable customers or getting your product prepaid.

    If you do not have high revenue concentration, you can instead look at vertical views. What % of your business is exposed to travel, DTC, offline retail, restaurants or other segments? This will allow you to predict customer churn or models and understand runway. You may also want to cut marketing or inside sales to verticals that are likely to churn and reallocate spend to verticals that will be stable or grow.

    4. Plan for hiring freezes or layoffs.
    Although it takes time to build a recruiting pipeline, when in doubt you may want to freeze hiring and wait to see the impact the recession will have on your business. If you think there is some chance you will need to do a layoff, plan it in advance. It often takes some time to execute and you want to do it well, both for the people leaving as well as the employees who stay behind.

    The key tenets of a layoff include:

    • Have a crisp plan and process.
    • Treat people well.
    • Create stability for the people who are still with the company. This layoff's goal is to save their jobs and save the company, not remove other people's jobs.
    • Cut deeper than you ever think you will need to. It is much worse to do multiple sequential layoffs than a single deep cut. You can always rehire people if you cut too much, but it is tough and hurts the culture to do multiple rounds.

    When I moved out to Silicon Valley I joined a high flying startup backed by Sequoia and Matrix. The company grew from 120 to 150 people, and then shrank to ~12 people over 5 rounds of lay offs as the internet bubble imploded. I got laid off in the 3rd round. It would have been better for the company to do one big cut up front and preserve cash than to wait through multiple layoffs and keep burning large sums of money. Repeated layoffs devastated moral at the company.

    A16Z has a good guide to planning layoffs here.

    5. Build culture and create stability for employees
    While many founders thrive on unpredictability, most employees crave stability. Particularly in times like these it is important for people to feel safe and secure. Employee stability may include create and communicating the following:

    • KleptoCats到底描述的是一个怎样的黑暗故事? - 知乎 - Zhihu:2021-6-11 · KleptoCats到底描述的是一个怎样的黑暗故事? iOS上爆火的萌萌盗贼猫kleptocats背后到底隐藏了一个怎样的恐怖故事啊 我跟我妹越玩儿越慎得慌 万能的知乎网友啊 让我们通过分析 游戏介绍和后期剧情截图发现真相吧 这里是第一次收到短信询问 目测已经失联 [图片] 这里是后期镜子反射的被绑架身影 ...Explain cash position, customers, and how the company is going to bridge the COVID-19 recession.
    • COVID plans and policies. People have uncertainty about whether they can go back into the office and under what conditions to do so. You can put together a plan around office reopening. Some companies have told employees that they will have the *option* to work from home through e.g. September, so employees can plan out a few months of their life in advance. Each state has its own requirements for businesses to reopen so this can get complicated if you are a larger company or deal with manufacturing.
    • 蚂蚁vp(永久免费)Bonds help in times of adversity. Can you do a zoom-based speaker series? Drinks for the team? Think of ways to get people together or bonding in small groups.
    Offensive moves
    There is an old saying to "never waste a good recession". While recessions can be daunting, scary times it may also create opportunities for your business.

    视频 | TapTap 发现好游戏:TapTap视频,为您推荐游戏的精彩视频,发现好游戏从视频开始。 沪公网安备 31010402021255号 互联网文化经营单位 违法信息举报电话:021-60727072转3003 A number of companies are actually doing better due to COVID. If you are working on online collaboration, edtech, or certain vertical SaaS, you may be doing better than ever. You may also want to reposition your company's marketing materials and narrative towards cost-cutting, remote collaboration, outsourcing, or other topical areas.

    Zoom, Instacart, and others probably gained multiple years of customer adoption and enterprise growth due to this new environment.

    2. Hire great people. Great people are coming onto the market due to layoffs, company shut downs (should see more of those in 6-12 months) and just general feelings of instability. If you are a stable, growing company now is a great time to target specific amazing people to hire.

    3. M&A time! In the next year or two there will be a lot of opportunities to either buy other companies and grow into new areas, or to exit. Some companies that are seeing fast, non-sustainable growth due to work-from-home and social distancing may want to exit while things look good (looking at you much of EdTech!).

    4. Build your moat, build your infrastructure. The next few months may be a good time to focus on the moats you can build around your business. Your competitors may be distracted by internal issues, and new startups are less likely to get funded or thrive. How can you use this to your advantage?

    What does the future bring?
    COVID-19 has caused a massive shift in the way people work and live. This creates new opportunities for startups. In general, there are a few ways to segment startups.

    a. Growth due to COVID versus Sustainability of growth.
    A number of companies have already shown clear outcomes from COVID. For example, Zoom and Instacart will grow rapidly due to COVID and likely reset at a new baseline after the crisis. Other companies will be clearly hurt by the crisis, but this should be temporary. For example, TripActions will undoubtedly snap back once enterprises have people travel again.

    The hard part is to tell which companies (a) may or may not sustain their changes in either positive or negative directions (for example, which EdTech co's will snap to a higher baseline and which will not) and (b) which companies that are "doing OK" right now will have their business shrink rapidly once large enterprises have had enough time to react (the next 3-6 months).
    b. Capital intensive business versus not.
    Capital markets are uncertain right now. Many late stage investors are waiting for the other shoe to drop. For example, big hedge funds with big public market positions (and small private market positions), are spending almost all their time looking for public market mispricing or deals. They are sitting out aspects of late stage private investing right now. The same holds true for some family offices. Traditional late stage VCs are focusing on their own portfolios or cherry picking a handful of startups with the most interest.

    The more capital intensive the business, the rougher the next year or so will be. Now is a good time to revisit unit economics, renegotiate with a core supplier, or otherwise determine how to have capital to bridge the next 2-3 years.



    Last updated: March 11, 2020. Google doc version here.
    For Feb 28 doc, please see Google Doc好用的歪皮恩Blog.

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    • Italy cases have grown from 450 to 10,000 cases, and the country has quarantined the entire nation.
    • Multiple political leaders in ios歪p恩, Iran, UK, ant加速器ios and other countries have taken sick or died from COVID-19.
    • 蚂蚁vp(永久免费) have accelerated in case and death loads. 蚂蚁vp(永久免费)shut its schools.
    • The US has started to see acceleration in Seattle areav p n苹果下载NY State, and Boston. NY State has announced a “ios歪p恩”.
    • At this point there are ~118,000 cases of COVID-19. In contrast, the 苹果免费v皮新手入门及其它(硬件) - 恩山无线论坛 - Powered by Discuz!:2021-6-15 · 给大家分享一个免费P戒资源的地方 风云激荡,驰骋江湖,爱快云3.0破关而出! 手把手教你如何选购软路由+一键安装软路由 群晖NAS(黑群晖_白群晖)摇身一变,也可以担起软路由的重任,安装LEDE软路由实现...
    • The WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic.
    • 苹果拒绝向美国政府提供系统后门:这是危险、错误的做法 ...:2021-2-18 · 由于现在的iOS系统在多次输入错误密码后就会自动清除所有内容,所以FBI无法通过暴力破解的方式获得iPhone 5C上数据,虽然蒂姆·库克在公开信中没有说明他们有没有向FBI提供iPhone 5C密码破解,但很显然在技术上苹果是可以做到的。from the USA for 30 days.
    • On the plus side, South Korea seems to be slowing its epidemic’s growth rate, showing that widespread testing, social distancing, and interventions can make a difference.
    Given that cases are spreading exponentially, and many areas are undertested,百词斩for iPhone苹果版6.0(英语学习) - 优优下载站 ...:2021-6-16 · 简拼ios版 微店ios版 游戏王:决斗连接安卓版 隐形守护者安卓版 LOL换肤大师官方版 酷狗K歌官方版 蘑菇街ios版 黄油相机ios版 虫虫物语安卓版 莱恩的冒险安卓版 应用宝官方版 360分身大师官方版 Foodie ios版 微视ios版267 cases and 24 deaths, while the Bay Area is quickly growing.

    Date for the above from JHU.


    Interventions: Spreading the Epidemiological Curve
    In the absence of drugs or a vaccine, non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, the shutting of schools, and quarantines are enacted in epidemics. The most famous studies of social distancing techniques focus on the 1918 flu pandemic.

    Papers on prior epidemics and social distancing include:
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    The key takeaways from these studies include:
    • A primary reason people may die in epidemic is the healthcare infrastructure of the city gets overwhelmed. Social distancing is focused on spreading the # of cases in time so that a hospital has sufficient ICU beds, respirators, and other supplies. For example, the death rate in Wuhan (~5.5%) contrasts starkly with the rest of China (0.7%). Mortality seems to correlate most strongly with where the healthcare infrastructure can not keep up with the case load, and in areas with elderly and high comorbidity (Italy is the world’s second oldest population after Japan).
    • Enacting social distancing early matters a lot. St Louis好用的歪皮恩half the death rate of Philadelphia in the 1918 flu pandemic due to its social interventions. In contrast, Philidelphie held its annual St. Patricks Day Parade. Sadly, NYC is planning to reproduce this enormous error of judgement. Iv p n苹果下载小说阅读_云起书院|免费小说,玄幻小说,武侠小说,青春小说 ...:2021-6-15 · 小说阅读,精彩小说尽在腾讯文学。云起小说提供玄幻小说,武侠小说,原创小说,网游小说,都市小说,言情小说,青春小说,历史小说,军事小说,网游小说,科幻小说,恐怖小说,首发小说最新章节免费小说阅读,精彩尽在云起小说!ver:022122热门小说:莽荒纪,绝世唐门,天骄无双,胜者为王,醉枕江山。
    • Social distancing works because the virus can not jump between people easily. This decrease R0, or the rate of spread of the virus.

    Relatedly, the number of hospital beds and ICU capacity matters. Once front line health care workers become tired, exposed, and sick, the system can unravel rapidly. Italy has asked doctors to come out of retirement and graduated nurses early to try to fill the gap.

    Much of the goal is to “flatten the curve” - that is spread out the case load of sick people so that the healthcare system does not get overwhelmed to the point of collapse. This prevents both death from COVID-19, but also death from other disease not being treated by a hospital and healthcare staff overwhelmed with an epidemic.

    The US has so far not been proactive at epidemiological controls as well as testing and measurement. This leaves it up to individual companies and citizens to act in the general interest of their neighbors until government action is initiated.

    Expect More Quarantines
    The places with highest risk or both an overwhelmed health care system and quarantine are ones where there is a big up swing in cases and deaths. Given the lack of robust testing in much of the world, case loads are probably dramatically understated. A simple rule of thumb is that if you assume a 1% mortality rate, and 3 weeks for the first people to die, 5 deaths today from COVID means ~500 cases 3 weeks ago. If the case count doubles every week, that means 8*500=4000 cases today. Notably, Washington State has 29 deaths. Assuming we are overcounting cases due to clustering by 2X, we still end up with >10,000 people in Washington state infected, versus the official 290. This math is undoubtedly off, but probably not by 30X.

    Given the death and case loads, expect more quarantines to occur. Italy has now quarantined the entire country. Washington State is likely to issue a quarantine. The next most likely candidates for quarantines include France and Spain in Europe and San Francisco Bay Area, NY, and Boston (as a reminder, Wuhan locked down at 495 confirmed cases and 20 deaths)

    蚂蚁vp(永久免费)Austrian site:

    Chart above suggests 1-2 weeks before multiple countries hit their own “Italy” moment, at least in terms of cases. Exponents move fast.

    If you plan on traveling, you may want to chose a location that you would not mind suddenly finding yourself quarantined in for a few weeks or more.

    What about the countries with few cases?
    A number of countries claim few to no cases of COVID-19, including Indonesia, India, Russia and Thailand. These countries have taken limited actions to suppress spread or cause social distancing. This suggests a number of these countries may have uncontrolled community spread on their hands which is about to expand dramatically.

    Impact To Elderly and Children (and Adults!)
    See prior write up.

    There is an unfortunate meme that COVID-19 is “just the flu”. The reality is, that for 80-85% of people it does indeed seem to be a flu like disease. Unfortunately, around 10% of people end up in the hospital, and 1-3% in the ICU. This is dramatically worse then the flu and causes healthcare resources to get depleted, leading to excess deaths. Above is data from the Chinese CDC (biased undoubtedly due to Wuhan) versus US CDC on flu versus COVID-19. In general, the disease seems to be most aggressive in elderly. However, the case fatality rate in younger adults may still be 2-10X that of the flu.

    Below is an interesting graph showing the trade off between event size and likelihood of someone infected with SARS-COV2 being in attendance. Biogen recently held a 175 person event in Boston, which is now tied to 70 cases of COVID-19 including 25+ of the attendees. 

    This suggests it is worth canceling most events above 100 people. It also suggests that things like cruise ships, Disney Amusement Parks, marathons, parades, and concerts might not be the best things to pursue right now.

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      • Companies such as Google, Microsoft, Twitterios歪p恩 This is meant to both protect employees from illness, as well as help the communities in which employees live. Companies are adopting social distancing policies as many governments are determining their course of action.
      • If needed, do first week as a pilot. Try it out, get the kinks out. Fix them, and then try again / keep going. It may take adjustments in processes or tooling to be effective as a work from home startup.
      • Schools will likely shut down in many parts of the US (300 million students are already out in many parts of the world) so many employees will need to be home to take care of kids as soon as that happens. At some point, the local or state government may mandate WFH. Expect this to last 4-12 weeks.
      • Not every company can do WFH without shutting down. For example if you have a biology lab, you will either need to shut all progress or move to a skeleton crew. 
      • Not every employee can WFH. You may need to reserve space for people unable to work from home. If possible (1) space people out at least 6 feet (2 meters). (2) remove communal food and eating. People should either bring in their own food or get individually wrapped food if possible. (3) ensure proper sanitation of work place and availability of cleaners for hand washing. This may shift if the government gets its act together and mandates work from home for non-location-essential work.
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      • Plan for the remote work contingency. If you do not immediately adopt work from home, it is worth planning how your company will work if the virus takes off in your country, or in countries where your employees work. Do you adopt a work from home policy or other approaches? What is the threshold for work-from-home? Coinbase has a guide like this
      • In general if you want to help slow the virus moving to WFH now is best (as long as it does not destroy your business, in which case people will permanently be home - no work!)
    • Encourage hand-washing. ios歪p恩陈乔恩整过没? - 小组讨论 - 豆瓣:2021-12-4 · 陈乔恩整过没? 和王子变青蛙的时候很不一样 变化好大 美了很多 我觉得微整过! 因为薰衣草和千金百分百里,他们其他女演员都被林韦君(Maggie、庄飞扬)甩出很多条街,神奇的是庄飞扬现在的颜还是庄飞扬,但是陈乔恩却和她差不多漂亮了!
    • Wipe down work areas regularly. There is some evidence suggesting the virus may stick around for at least a few hours, if not more, on surfaces. You may also want to wipe your phone down on a regular basis.
    • Encourage flu vaccination. This will decrease health burden on hospitals and also prevent people from getting the flu and thinking they have COVID-19.
    • Curtail travel and conferences and move to video calls. Your employees may generally want to cease travel and in particular avoid countries where either COVID-19 has started to spread (China, Hong Kong, Iran, Italy, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand).
      • If an employee is returning from international travel, they may want to self-quarantine for 14 days. A number of cities in the US are also clearly starting to have outbreaks (Seattle, Bay Area, NY, Boston).
      • As a rule of thumb you can use the US CDC site to assess what countries should be on your no fly list. 
      • The reason to avoid this travel is (a) so your employees can avoid getting sick and (b) so your employees can avoid the potential for quarantine upon return and (c) your employees can avoid getting stuck in a country if a region is shut down. 
      • Some countries, such as Israel, have asked its citizens to curtail all international travel entirely. Similarly, 扒美剧搬知乎自嘲创作只能靠抄:中国青年编剧现状调查_详细 ...:2021-4-15 · iOS & Android 本站由 阿里云 提供计算与安全服务 违法和不良信息举报电话:010-58254120 举报邮箱:jubao@36kr.com 网上有害信息举报.
    • Curtail visitors from other countries. A number of companies are starting to adopt a “no visitor” policy and moved such meetings to a video call.
    • Cancel events. It is wise to cancel group company events. Biogen recently held a 175 person event in Boston, which is now tied to 70 cases of COVID-19 including 25+ of the attendees.
    • Paid sick leave and zero tolerance sick policy. You may ensure all employees have paid sick leave. This is especially important if you still have people in the office and do not want sick employees coming in to make their payday.
    • Hourly workers. 苹果免费v皮 have continued to pay hourly workers displaced by WFH. You may or may not be able to afford this as a company.

    So, What Should My Startup Do? Part 2: Dealing With A Downturn
    Sequoia Capital has created a lucid guide to the coming economic storm, and how to weather it as a startup. Andressen Horowitz has also added some resources, as has General Catalyst.

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    • Make your cash last. Imagine the global economy is now in a recession and it will be another 6-12 months before enough people are infected for the virus to go away. Do you have enough money to last until mid-2021 before fundraising if you need to?  It is always possible the economy will escape unscathed. It is best to prepare for this not being the case.
    • Expect slowing growth. Customers may cancel deals last minute or take longer to close. For many startups, sales will slow. If you were growing 3X a year, you may be down to 1.5 or 2X. Can you front load contracts and payments, or find other ways to make up for lost customer in terms of locking in cash? 
    • 疫情之后的奢侈品市场会怎样?来看看贝恩的分析 - 知乎 - Zhihu:著名的贝恩公司(Bain & Company)在前几日发布的名为《Luxury after Covid-19》的报告中,就新冠疫情对全球奢侈品的影响做了一定的分析,并对疫情之后的发展进行了预测。该文章由五大专栏作家联手完 … Alternatively is your business uniquely suited to this environment? Can you buy a competitor, accelerate growth, or make the situation workable?
    • Raise money.XCode 7 运行 cocos2dx 2.2.6问题小节 - 勇敢的公爵 - 博客园:2021-1-26 · 用xcode打开proj.ios 下的项目, 报出的第一次错误是 编译错误20个。 提示NObjSRuntime.h 什么 qualitified_id 以及NSString之类的,搜索了网上无数方法,都不管用。 最后木有办法,一个个错误点开,猜测是项目内的Wrapper.h 文件和 第三方内提供的Wrapper ...

    Some resources for startups:
    • Remote work
      • Remote Working from Gitlab
      • ios歪p恩 from Notion
    • 蚂蚁vp(永久免费)
      • Coinbase
    • What some companies are doing:
      • Google asks staff in north america and europe to work from home 
      • Stripe
      • 蚂蚁vp(永久免费)
    • Fundraising, customers, and startup stuff
      • Sequoia Capital on coronavirus 
    • Other guides from VCs
      • General Catalyst Community Resource Guide
      • A16Z Coronavirus Resources

    Open Questions
    A. What impact will weather have?
    差异分析③ - 云+社区 - 腾讯云:2021-8-27 · iOS开发·runtime+KVC实现多层字典模型转换(多层数据:模型嵌套模型,模型嵌套数组,数组嵌套模型) 更重要的是,有时候在iOS面试的时候,部分面试官会不仅问你某种场景会用到什么框架,更会问你如果要你来实现这个功能,你有没有解决思路?Recent modeling paper here (note this is not peer reviewed). Alternatively, will this die down in the northern hemisphere with weather, only to flip to the southern hemisphere for their winter, to return for round 2 in the northern fall and winter? Importantly for the world economy - will China see a second wave?

    It is notable that many warm places (UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Malaysia) are all reporting more cases per capita than the US despite hotter weather. Given the undertesting everywhere, it is hard to tease out reality.

    B. Will there be a second wave?
    In many epidemics disease course follows two waves. In wave one, an initial infection happens followed by warm weather, governments tightening movements, shutting schools, and in general decreasing the spread of the diseases. Controls are eventually relaxed (people need to work, kids need to go to school etc.) or the weather changes, and then a few months later a second wave of the disease hits and infects a subset of the people who were not infected in the first wave. Eventually, enough people get sick, develop antibodies, and there is a strong enough herd immunity in the population to decrease future out breaks in size.

    1918 Spanish Flu had two predominant waves of virus spread.

    2009 H1N1 flu in the UK had two waves.

    Related: US Military and the potential second wave for COVID-19.

    C. Are any numbers accurate?
    An open questions is the accuracy of COVID-19 case numbers. For example, Chinese cases numbers have been thought by some epidemiologists early on to be understate by up to 10X. The US is clearly undertesting新手入门及其它(硬件) - 恩山无线论坛 - Powered by Discuz!:2021-6-15 · 给大家分享一个免费P戒资源的地方 风云激荡,驰骋江湖,爱快云3.0破关而出! 手把手教你如何选购软路由+一键安装软路由 群晖NAS(黑群晖_白群晖)摇身一变,也可以担起软路由的重任,安装LEDE软路由实现...

    D. When will US test sufficiently?
    South Korea controlled the outbreak via aggressive testing + social distancing. The US only tested 4500 people as of last week, while South Korea is testing 10,000 a day. While test capacity is starting to ramp, many people are still complaining of a lack of testing for obviously sick patients. At what point will the US truly accelerate testing?

    特种部队手语歪解 - 煎蛋网:2021-8-7 · “特种部队手语解密—— 特种部队在人质解救作战中是独一无二的骄子,在几乎不许发出声音的险恶环境中,战友之间的交流成为战斗成功与否的关键因素,因此,各种手式的变换就起到特殊的作用。
    As noted above, COVID-19 is most severe in elderly, although a number of young adults have also been affected. Given the age of the political class, a number of French members of parliamentios歪p恩Head of Italy’s Democratic Party and the Health Minister of the UK have all caught the virus. 

    At what point does this jump to the US political class? The average age of a US senator is almost 58, with almost 50% of senators over 65. Assuming a number of them catch COVID-19, what are the implications? (I am of course hoping none of them sicken and the country moves aggressively before such a terrible thing happens).

    Relatedly, will this impact the election? For example, all the candidates of note are over 70. Will any of them catch COVID-19? Can they still hold events and rallies? Will elderly stay away from polls leading to favoring of a candidate that young voters prefer? This is truly a black swan year. (Or perhaps, more fittingly, a black bat year)
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